The Emissions Issue: Will Parliament Ever Deliver on Crucial Net-Zero Legislation?

By Bianca Ritter

Though dolphins are returning to the canals of Venice and wild goats now wander through small Welsh towns, the return of nature following the pandemic induced shutdown cannot entirely be understood as a positive respite from the pressing concerns of climate change. The current global crisis may yet prove highly dangerous in the battle against increasing carbon emissions as the UK continues to delay the release of essential information with regard to their intended approach to reducing carbon emissions. 

 Despite a public legal commitment in 2019 to reduce the UK’s net carbon emissions to zero by 2050, the government has yet to release any clear indication of how it intends to pursue this goal. In January 2020, it faced further backlash when opting to delay the release of a crucial legislative strategy for curbing industrial emissions. Rather than appearing alongside the March budget, this review has now been postponed “until autumn” according to Treasury minister Simon Clarke. Even if released as scheduled, this review will appear well over a year after the initial commitment to the project, crucially delaying the legal action required to curtail the UK’s growing emissions. The decision to delay the publication of this strategy review inevitably drew criticism from the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, who suggested that the government lacked urgency with regard to climate change. 

Perhaps more significantly, this increased delay was also met with distinct hostility by those in the transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors. As these industries must be allowed to plan financially for the introduction of new emission regulations, neglecting this crucial cushion period can result in unsustainable and ineffective emissions tests. At best, this shortened time frame will force industries to find “quick-fix” solutions to reduce emissions if the UK still seeks a net-zero carbon footprint by 2050. However, companies who cannot meet emissions guidelines might be incentivized to cheat emissions tests (such as in Volkswagen’s 2015 Dieselgate scandal). 

 In addition to delaying the publication of the net-zero strategic plan, the government appears to be under no hurry to release information regarding the UK’s current state of carbon emissions. Following the onset of Covid-19, the UK has also chosen to postpone the release of May’s anticipated figures illustrating actual carbon emission-levels, leaving many in the dark as to how the country plans to address the issue at hand. 

Three major questions arise from the United Kingdom’s continuing reluctance to release a strategic approach to their promise of net-zero emissions.   

 Will the UK Continue to Delay Further Legislation? 

 While the government’s expected review date has not been formally postponed, May 28th saw the council of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) announce that they planned to delay the conference until 2021. Though expected, this has certainly removed the impetus for the Conservative Party to release the net-zero legislation strategy prior to the November 2020 conference. The first global stock-take since the Paris Agreement of 2015, the significance of COP26 upon British emissions policy cannot be overstated. The rescheduled conference will still take place within the UK, but the extended time frame may result in a more relaxed approach from the British government to imposing carbon-emission restrictions. A similar attitude can currently be seen in the EU, which has opted to reduce regulations surrounding green spending (even eliminating the green spending ringfence in some cases). Without such a definitive deadline, it seems likely the UK would seek to further delay the planned strategy release. 

 Could Such a Delay Lead to a Further Decline in Sustainable Energy Investment? 

The economic downturn following Covid-19 has undoubtedly resulted in a significant fall in investment in the energy sector, resulting in a 30% fall in fossil fuel investors and a 10% drop in renewable energy. The significant decline in fossil fuel investment can primarily be put down to the pandemic induced shutdown of the oil industry. However, investment in green energy solutions in the aviation and agricultural sectors will likewise be impacted by the pandemic’s effects upon these industries. The decline of green energy investment may not have been as immediate as the fall of fossil fuels but might still prove to be even more severe. If the UK persists in delaying crucial legislation strategies or removes green spending ringfences (as the EU has chosen to do), such hesitance could brand renewable energy as a “de-prioritised” industry, resulting in a further drop in investment. 

 If the Review is Published, can affected industries in the United Kingdom survive new emission restrictions?

 The government’s net-zero strategy will undoubtedly require significant curbs upon industries such as aviation and agriculture, both of which are already struggling in the wake of the pandemic. With mass furloughs (especially in the aviation industry), many suggest that November 2020 is simply not a viable time to impose significant emission restrictions. Cash-strapped corporations may struggle to cope with new regulations as they seek to recover from the economic fallout of the global pandemic. Such could result in further layoffs in these industries, increasing unemployment in the UK. 

The government has already demonstrated a distinct reluctance to provide financial support to the transportation and aviation industries after denying bailouts to British Airways and Virgin Atlantic. British Airways has met this challenge by cutting 12,000 of its 42,000 employees, while Virgin Atlantic has ceased all future flights to Gatwick. Struggling with the severe decline in non-essential travel, many airlines are already in peril. The introduction of new emissions regulations might signify the death-knell of the UK’s aviation industry. 

While the government’s intended strategy for reducing carbon emissions remains a mystery, it is evident that time is of the essence. Further delays will only exacerbate the issues of climate change, while immediate action threatens struggling industries with further cutbacks.